'Magnificent' Iranian negotiators haggle down to the wire

In high-stakes diplomacy with the Iranians , nuclear negotiators have come to accept one particular truisim: the haggling will go down to the wire.

For officials and foreign ministers of the P5+1 - the five permanent members of the UN security council and Germany - gathered in Lausanne to try to strike a landmark nuclear detente with Tehran, it is proving no less the case. These are the most important diplomatic discussions with Iran in over a decade - and possibly the most important international negotiations for the Middle East for years to come. As such, few anticipate a deal emerging with plenty of time to spare before Tuesday's midnight deadline. It might even come days later.

"The Iranians are magnificent negotiators," says Mark Fitzpatrick, head of non-proliferation and disarmament programme at the think-tank IISS, and the US state department's former nuclear chief. "They are tactically brilliant. But the problem is sometimes that tactical brilliance can get in the way of achieving the preferred strategic outcome."

The Iranian team in Lausanne - led by foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the country's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi - are "playing a smart game" says Mr Fitzpatrick, "but if they don't agree to the compromises they are going to miss the opportunity . . . the opportunity of a lifetime. This deal isn't coming around again."

The talks so far -which ramped up over the course of the weekend as foreign ministers arrived in the opulent surroundings of the belle epoque Beau Rivage Palace - have been drawn out: meetings begin early over strong coffee and end late in the night.

Plenipotentiaries have been at pains to grab fleeting moments of downtime to de-stress: John Kerry, the US secretary of state, went cycling into the mountains - secret service detail in train - on Saturday. US energy secretary Ernest Moniz escaped the gilded cage of the hotel to grab a pizza in a local Italian. (It is offering a selection of specials named after world leaders; the Obama, the Merkel and the Cameron among them.) China's Wang Yi - clad in a crisp all-white tracksuit - has been spotted jogging along the corniche in the mornings.

While the talks are deadlocked, say diplomats, there could be a breakthrough at any moment. "As we enter this phase of talks it's really a question of political trade-offs," says one senior western official. "Everyone is holding their cards close. Everyone is probing each others' defences and trying to find the right way through."

One gambit of the Iranians that raises ire among P5+1 diplomats is the habit of suddenly backtracking on areas of discussion previously assumed to have been nailed down. After P5+1 teams held firm on the critical issue of UN sanctions relief over the weekend, Iran's deputy foreign minister gave an interview to Iranian television in which he said Tehran could no longer stomach its stockpile of uranium being shipped abroad for reprocessing.

The Iranians have also tried to take advantage of differences of opinion within P5+1. Although so far world powers have retained a remarkably united front, there are differences: France has taken the most hawkish line, and has pushed for terms of a deal lasting 15 to 20 years. The US, eager to get something done, is minded to accept only 10. The Russians and Chinese meanwhile - potentially the biggest beneficiaries of any loosening of international trade blockades, have been - at times - more accommodating on the issue of UN sanctions.

Both sides believe they have already given enough ground; the Iranians have, however, made the most recent significant concessions when they agreed to cut their total number of centrifuges below 9,000. As a result, they are insistent it is the turn of the P5+1 to give ground next.

"We are awfully close," says Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia group, "Can the P5+1 really let it fall apart just because of the UN sanctions issue? Is that really going to bring the deal down? A lawyer could solve this."

It is a high-stakes game. US officials said on Tuesday that the talks will not be extended beyond the March 31 deadline. "We really have made progress," one British diplomat said recently from London "Usually when you negotiate with the Iranians you spend weeks negotiating, only to find you've agreed to more negotiations."

In that vein, the deal being worked in Lausanne is not indeed final. It is simply a broad political compact, designed to buy time and allow technical experts to work up a full and permanent accord to be signed in June. The next round might be even more fraught.

As one western diplomat notes: "The problem with understandings is that if they are not precise, they quickly become misunderstandings."

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