Australians stub out cigarettes in wake of plain-pack law

Australians are consuming less tobacco products than at any time since records began in 1959, prompting health campaigners to claim the world's first law forcing cigarettes to be sold in plain packs is reducing smoking rates.

On Tuesday Ireland followed Australia and New Zealand to become the third country to commit to forcing tobacco companies to sell their products in plain packs carrying graphic health warnings.

Australia, which introduced plain packaging in December 2012, is at the centre of a global debate over whether such laws can reduce smoking. The data will provide fresh ammunition to campaigners in countries such as the UK, which is considering similar rules.

Figures published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday show households consumed A$3.4bn (US$3.2bn) in tobacco and cigarettes in the three months to the end of March 2014, almost A$1bn lower than a decade earlier.

"Plain packaging was always a long-term measure, aimed especially at children, so the positive indicators around sales are especially encouraging," said Mike Daube, a health policy professor and president of the Australian Council on Smoking and Health.

However, the tobacco industry disputed the interpretation of the government statistics, saying its own data suggest cigarette sales rose in Australia last year for the first time in five years.

Big tobacco is fighting a global lobbying campaign to counter the spread of plain packaging laws. It lost a high-profile legal case in Australia in which it had argued the laws violated tobacco companies' trademark rights and restricted free trade.

Canberra is facing legal challenges at the World Trade Organisation from several tobacco-producing states.

Assessing the effectiveness of the plain packaging regulations is difficult as reliable and timely data are scarce. No comprehensive surveys on smoking rates have been completed since the ABS found 16.3 per cent of Australian adults smoked daily in 2011-2012, down from 22.4 per cent a decade earlier. Last year a study of 500 smokers commissioned by the Cancer Society of Victoria found plain packaging reduced the appeal of smoking and increased smokers' thoughts about quitting.

The new ABS estimates show the volume of cigarettes and tobacco consumed by households, a measure that removes pricing impacts from the data. The trend measure fell to its lowest level since 1959 in the three months to the end of March.

The big three tobacco companies in Australia - British American Tobacco, Imperial Tobacco and Philip Morris - played down the ABS figures, saying their combined sales had increased by 59m cigarettes or equivalent in 2013, the first rise in five years.

BAT said the ABS figures also showed a rise in consumption in the year after the introduction of plain packaging. It said the drop recorded in the first quarter of 2014 followed a 12.5 per cent rise in excise duty introduced in December 2013, which may have influenced the figures.

"Plain packs and excise has seen smokers look for cheaper products, and instead of quitting they're saving money," said Mr McIntyre.

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This week BAT began selling a A$13 pack of 25 cigarettes, saying the introduction of plain packaging was forcing companies to compete on price. A high-end pack sells for up to A$25 in Australia.

Big tobacco also claims smuggling is increasing, citing a KPMG report, which it financed, that found illegal consumption of tobacco in Australia increased to 13.9 per cent in 2013, up from 11.8 per cent a year earlier.

Australia's customs service does not support the claim, noting in its annual report for 2012-13 that the "threat posed by tobacco smuggling remained relatively stable during the year".

Most experts say the full impact of plain packaging is likely to take years to become clear. But Mr Daube said the best indicator that the law was working was the sheer desperation of the tobacco industry in its relentless campaign against the measure.

"Tobacco companies have been lying for 50 years," he said. "Why would they stop now?"

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