Lebanon political wrangling leaves presidency vacant

Michel Suleiman, Lebanese president, finishes his term on Sunday with no one to replace him, as political wrangling leaves one of the country's top posts vacant while it struggles to contain the effects of neighbouring Syria's civil war.

Parliament failed for a fifth time on Friday to vote for a president after a boycott by some parliament members left it unable to reach the quorum needed for elections.

The political paralysis highlights deep divisions between Lebanon's two main blocs - the March 8 Alliance, led by the Shia militant and political group Hizbollah, and the March 14 Alliance led by the Sunni Muslim Future Movement.

Their rivalries have been intensified by Syria's three-year conflict, with Hizbollah forces fighting on the side of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while March 14 groups support the rebellion against his government.

"We will be in a crisis, but it will be a soft one with things more or less under control," said Alain Aoun, a parliamentarian aligned with the March 8 bloc, which boycotted the presidential votes. He justified the move as a "political right in order to reach consensus".

The last presidential vacancy in 2008 contributed to growing instability that eventually sparked clashes across the country, but few political experts see Lebanon heading down the same path.

In recent months, a security crackdown across the tiny Mediterranean country stemmed a wave of clashes and car bombings in the country, and both blocs are keen to maintain stability.

Yet a moment of reckoning could be approaching if Lebanon's political elite cannot move beyond the basics of maintaining a government and stability in order to grapple with severe economic challenges.

"People say 'we've been through worse', that 'we had debt above 180 per cent of GDP and the situation remained resilient'. But there were different objective conditions," said Alia Moubayed, the director of research for the Middle East and north Africa for Barclays Bank.

"At just around 2 per cent growth, Lebanon will not be able to grow out of its debt today without major structural reforms. It has no functioning political institutions and with more than a million refugees, the socio-economic problems are much, much worse," she added.

The government says caring for refugees from Syria, who now make more than a quarter of Lebanon's population, has cost it $7bn so far.

"It's becoming more dangerous than the political situation," said Lebanese economist Kamel Wazne. "The debt is growing at 10 per cent a year and if this continues, we will have a debt over $100bn in four years and six months. Without a solution, this country is headed for a situation like Greece."

The presidency is a serious concern for Lebanese Christians, themselves divided between March 8 and March 14. It is the top Christian post according to Lebanon's sectarian-based power sharing system, and many worry a long vacancy could weaken their influence.

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Members of Parliament said it could take months of negotiations to agree on a candidate.

"Unfortunately I'm not optimistic about how long it will take to solve this," said Sami Gemayel, an MP for the March 14-aligned Christian Phalange party. "The whole system will be blocked - there will be no president to sign government decisions needed for state institutions to work."

Despite the dire warnings, the Lebanese have grown accustomed to power vacuums. In 2013, political rivalry left the country without a government for almost a year.

Lebanon's political fate is often decided through regional negotiations by rival patrons such as Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, who are keen to avoid another conflagration in the Middle East.

Some parliament members said a consensus candidate for president would likely emerge through a regionally-brokered "grand bargain" over issues such as the country's next prime minister, top cabinet post appointments, or a new parliamentary election law.

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