David Cameron sharpens tools to chip away at Nigel Farage support

David Cameron admits it will be tough to beat Ukip in this month's European elections. "For Nigel Farage it's like a pub quiz and he's playing his joker on his specialist round," the prime minister tells colleagues. For Mr Cameron the real fight is a year away: the general election of May 7 2015.

Mr Cameron is braced for further upheaval in his party following Ukip's expected strong showing and for the likelihood that some Tory MPs will press him to toughen his EU position. But he has ruled out a tack to the right, believing he already has the tools at his disposal to chisel away at Mr Farage's support.

The tight Tory election team - Mr Cameron, chancellor George Osborne and campaign chief Lynton Crosby - believes the party's commitments in areas such as immigration and welfare cuts already rival Ukip's appeal. But Mr Cameron sees his most potent weapon in a general election as the warning that a vote for Mr Farage would let in Labour, ruling out an EU referendum in the next parliament.

In Downing Street every policy and public utterance is parsed for its relevance to two straight political fights: the blue/purple skirmish with Ukip and the blue/red battle with Labour. "We're not worried too much about the Lib Dems," says one Tory official. "Sure we want to win some seats off them in the South West and a few other places, but that isn't our main preoccupation."

Mr Cameron wants to halve Mr Farage's support from its current 13-15 per cent, but is equally concerned with Labour. "We haven't even started pounding them on the economy yet," says another Tory strategist.

Much depends on whether Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne can make the general election a test of economic competence, or whether Mr Miliband can get voters to answer a different question: "Which party do you trust to improve your standard of living and make Britain fairer?"

In spite of the prospect of dismal election results this month, a sense of optimism pervades Downing St. Some Tories are even speculating on Mr Cameron's post-2015 cabinet and whether Mr Osborne might move to the Foreign Office to oversee negotiations on the planned 2017 referendum. "It's ludicrous," says one aide to the chancellor. "But at least it shows that people are starting to talk about us winning." Those who know Mr Osborne say he is unlikely to give up the keys to the Treasury willingly.

Mr Cameron even claims to be happy about the expected return of Boris Johnson to Westminster at the 2015 election, although he would be unwise to say anything else.

The prime minister will promise at the next election to serve a full second term, in an attempt to head off speculation he might stand aside after the EU referendum. He tells colleagues he now has "a much clearer idea" of what he wants to do as prime minister and how to do it.

Indeed Mr Cameron's team admit that the last election campaign was unfocused, with too many involved in running it. The next campaign will be tightly organised around a central principle: the "long-term economic plan".

The prime minister plans to present a fresher Tory face to electors in 2015: a reshuffle expected in June is likely to see the promotion to the cabinet of rising stars such as Esther McVey, employment minister, and Liz Truss, schools minister. Veterans including Ken Clarke and Sir George Young are expected to make way.

But will Mr Cameron make it to the election if the Scots vote for independence in September's referendum? His team say there is no question of him resigning. "His name's not on the ballot paper," says one. The prime minister clearly does not want to give Scots another reason for voting Yes in September.

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