Heathrow on shortlist for runway expansion

Heathrow's chances of expansion will take a big step forward on Tuesday when the UK's largest airport will be formally identified as a leading contender for new runways.

The Airports Commission chaired by Sir Howard Davies will publish a shortlist of potential locations that will include Heathrow, Gatwick and the Thames estuary - the pet project of London's mayor, Boris Johnson - said people familiar with the situation. Stansted is not on the shortlist, they added.

The Davies commission, which releases its interim report on Tuesday, will now study closely plans to build a third and possibly a fourth runway at Heathrow, the UK's only hub, which is operating at full capacity.

The Middlesex airport's inclusion on the shortlist highlights a remarkable turnround in its fortunes over the past three and a half years.

When it came to power in 2010, the coalition scrapped the former Labour government's plan for a third runway at Heathrow. For more than two years ministers refused to consider expanding the airport beyond its two runways.

But last year the government established the Davies commission, partly to defuse tensions between Conservative and Liberal Democrat ministers. While both parties opposed Heathrow's expansion in their 2010 election manifestos, George Osborne, the Tory chancellor, has since swung behind the case for a third runway whose advocates argue it would bolster economic recovery.

However, Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat deputy prime minister, remains strongly opposed to new runways in the southeast of England.

Ed Miliband, Labour leader, has recently abandoned his opposition to a third runway at Heathrow, and is backing the case for an increase in airport capacity - although he is neutral on its location.

The commission led by Sir Howard, the former head of the CBI employers organisation, will now embark on a detailed examination of its shortlisted proposals, so that it can make final recommendations after the 2015 election on the location of at least one new runway.

Heathrow estimates it could cost up to £18bn to build a third runway, but has previously stressed that expansion is necessary to enable the airport to support more flights to fast-growing emerging markets.

The commission will also look at Gatwick's plans for adding a second runway that could cost £9bn. The West Sussex airport opposes Heathrow's expansion, and claims to be best placed to support the growth of low-cost carriers.

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Heathrow airport Holdings, Gatwick and Stansted all declined to comment.

The inclusion of the Thames estuary project on the shortlist follows years of campaigning by Mr Johnson, who opposes Heathrow's expansion. However, the commission is expected to raise searching questions about an estuary airport, including its cost.

In July, Mr Johnson outlined plans for an airport on the Isle of Grain with a price tag of £96bn because the scheme included closing Heathrow. But he said the net cost to the taxpayer could be £25bn after the hub was privatised.

The Department for Transport and the Davies commission declined to comment.

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