Grain forecaster steps into shutdown void and releases estimates

One of the oldest agricultural forecasters has voluntarily made public details of its surveys for the first time as the US government shutdown leaves a gaping hole in knowledge of global grain supplies.

The US Department of Agriculture will not release monthly crop reports on Friday as the partial government shutdown paralyses Washington.

Informa Economics, a unit of UK-based Informa, released its own estimates to the Financial Times as a substitute source of information.

The US-based consultancy ordinarily limits circulation of its reports to several hundred subscribers.

When subscribers leak them to agricultural news services, which sometimes moves grain futures markets, Informa refuses to confirm the contents.

With the USDA's market-moving reports suspended during the shutdown, Informa Economics chief executive Bruce Scherr said he wanted to make public the numbers "to fill a void".

"We've been in the business 35 years. We've never done this before," said Tom Scott, Informa Economics president.

The release highlights the importance of private forecasters, data gatherers and price reporting agencies as entire divisions of the US bureaucracy go dark.

The USDA shut down last week and the Energy Information Administration - a crucial source of oil market information - has operating funds to last through Friday.

Informa, which uses a network of analysts and on-the-ground surveyors, estimated world corn production will total 963.6m tonnes in the crop for the year ending next August, boosting stocks to 158.3m tonnes.

The USDA's last estimate was for 956.7m tonnes of production and 151.4m tonnes of stocks.

Mr Scott said: "The big picture is when we look at corn supplies, they are ample and getting better. Assuming average yields next year, we're going to have a replenished pipeline."

World soyabean production would be 284m tonnes in the coming year, higher than the USDA estimate of 281.7m tonnes.

World stocks would be 71.3m tonnes compared with 61.6m tonnes in the recently ended crop year. "We're transitioning into a very different environment," Mr Scott said.

Informa is not the only private forecaster. Lanworth, a division of Thomson Reuters, uses satellite imagery and other methods to gather information about crops.

Lanworth projected world corn production at 953m tonnes and the soyabean harvest at 286m tonnes. The forecaster regularly makes reports public.

The lack of government information from satellites and weather services "doesn't stop us from doing our job but it definitely makes what we do a lot more challenging", said Corey Cherr, Lanworth product manager.

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