FDP fate in Germany election hangs in balance

Mechthild Wolber is defending the strongest redoubt of Germany's beleaguered liberal Free Democrats.

The blonde business training specialist is standing for parliament in the prosperous hills of Baden-Wurttemberg, close to the Black Forest.

This is home turf for Germany's Mittelstand, the legions of family-owned enterprises. And it has long been home turf for the FDP, which presents itself as a Mittelstand party. In the 2009 election, the constituency gave the FDP its best result, 22 per cent, compared with 14.7 per cent nationally.

But this time it is different. The FDP's support has collapsed countrywide after it joined Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats in government and failed to deliver promised tax reforms. A lacklustre election campaign has seen popular backing fall dangerously close to the 5 per cent parliamentary threshold. If it fails for the first time in its 65-year history, it will send shockwaves through German politics.

The manicured towns of the constituency of Rottweil-Tuttlingen seem remote from the political rough-and-tumble of Berlin. They are home to world-beating companies in medical equipment, car parts and precision engineering. One factory is the globe's biggest producer of endoscopes, another leads in Mercedes car ignition locks, a third manufactures the Hohner harmonica, beloved of Larry Adler and Bob Dylan.

But it is districts such as this that could decide the FDP's fate. "Of course, it's difficult for me," says Ms Wolber, a 43-year-old first-time candidate. "In the first two years [in government] we got little done. We recovered in the following two years, but we have lost so much trust."

Ms Wolber will not be drawn on the numbers, but she concedes the local FDP vote will be well down on 2009. "We have to be realistic. There is nothing wrong with our party but we have lost credibility."

The CDU will almost certainly win the seat as it has for decades. Ms Wolber's job is to garner as many votes as possible so they can be channelled into a regional FDP pool through Germany's two-tier electoral system.

Last time, Rottweil-Tuttlingen helped propel a record 15 FDP MPs from Baden-Wurttemberg to Berlin. With fewer likely to be returned this time, Ms Wolber stands no chance, as she is 16th on the party list. But if she does well, she can hope for a higher place next time.

It's a long process that drives candidates to sink deep local roots. So even a party that does poorly in one election has a base for a subsequent recovery. With power - and budgets - devolved in Germany, regional and district elections also matter, so important polls happen frequently.

Ms Wolber is fortunate in inheriting a decades-long local FDP tradition. Supporting her is Ernst Burgbacher, the veteran junior economy minister, who is retiring. He insists the FDP's local strength will help Ms Wolber. "The criticism is exaggerated. When you talk to people here, it's not what they say."

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Gerhard Flesch, who owns a business distributing specialised hydraulic platforms, declines to say precisely how he will vote. But he offers the FDP some comfort: "I support the Mittelstand. And the FDP supports the Mittelstand."

Mittelstand bosses support the FDP for its low-tax, small-state liberal philosophy. "We don't like too many rules," says Mr Flesch. He is mildly sceptical on the euro, which puts him in the middle of a debate that has split the FDP between europhiles and eurosceptics.

He says: "It's hard to say who should be in the euro and who shouldn't. It depends on countries following the right policies." But the bottom line is that the EU must "definitely stay together to compete with China".

However, it is not global competition that really worries employers, it is labour shortages. With unemployment at just 3.4 per cent, well below the German average, employers cannot find workers. The top local hotel recently closed its restaurant for a week because the chef was away.

Young people often go away to study in Germany's cities and do not necessarily return to the countryside. Immigrants have taken their place, but the newcomers sometimes feel less comfortable than in larger centres. Looking to its own immediate survival, the FDP has little time to debate such long-term issues. But, if it survives in parliament, it may have to.

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