Ukrainian port is key to Russia's naval power

The revolution in Ukraine has called Russia's relations with Kiev into question, and with it a cornerstone of Moscow's remaining regional power.

The key to this power lies not on the streets of Crimean cities but in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, the main base for Russia's Black Sea Fleet

Although Russian and Ukrainian military officials have maintained dialogue over the Sevastopol base, the political uncertainty in Kiev could prompt Moscow to step up plans to find an alternative base.

"In the last five to 10 years, there has been a resurgence in Russian naval operations, particularly in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean," says Lee Willett, a naval analyst at IHS Jane's, the security consultancy. "Sevastopol has been an important hub to project Russian naval power."

Its significance was highlighted during the 2008 Georgia war, when the Russian fleet staged blockades in the Black Sea and launched amphibious landings. It has also proved its usefulness to Russia in the Libya crisis, anti-piracy missions in the Indian Ocean and Moscow's role in dismantling Syria's chemical weapons.

After Syria's civil war forced Russia to stop using its naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus last year, Sevastopol became even more crucial.

The Russian navy has about 15,000 personnel stationed in the Crimean base under an agreement with Ukraine that permits a maximum of 25,000 Russian military personnel to be based in the region. "What is interesting is that the number is estimated to have risen from 11,000 since 2008," says Mr Willett.

Under agreements signed with Ukraine in 2010, the Russian military can continue to use Sevastopol until 2042, with an option of extending the lease to 2047.

Last December, Russian president Vladimir Putin called the Black Sea Fleet's presence in Sevastopol a key factor for regional security. "We should resume comprehensive military and military-technical co-operation," he said, following the agreement under which Russia promised Ukraine's president Viktor Yanukovich a $15bn bailout.

Only a week ago, Russia's deputy foreign minister Grigory Karasin said on a visit to Kiev that the political crisis in Ukraine had not affected the Russian base, and that more agreements on its operations were in the works.

But with Mr Yanukovich gone, Moscow is forced to at least plan for very different scenarios.

"The question is whether and how that agreement may be affected by the changes in the Ukrainian government," says Mr Willett.

All eyes are now on Novorossiysk, a city on the Black Sea coast between Sochi and Sevastopol, which is already Russia's largest commercial port. Here, Moscow has been building naval infrastructure including a deep sea terminal.

But while the Russian Navy has started using the port for smaller naval vessels and a supply point, this work arguably is still at an embryonic stage. It will be very difficult to replace Sevastopol.

"Novorossiysk is not an ideal location because it doesn't have the natural deep sea harbour Sevastopol has, and the commercial port operations limit the available space," says a foreign military official in Moscow. "But it is the only option if they are forced out of Sevastopol."

Defence analysts say the question over the future of Sevastopol could provide an impetus for Moscow to consider Novorossiysk as a full alternative base more actively.

One factor will be whether and how Moscow interacts with Ukraine's new government. According to people briefed by Ukrainian military officials, Moscow has in the past used the price of Russian gas as a bargaining chip in annual talks on the lease price for the Sevastopol base.

Moscow has so far denounced the new Ukrainian leadership as illegitimate, but could change its stance with a new caretaker cabinet in place.

Another indicator for the future of the Sevastopol base will be where the Russian navy puts new ships. The Black Sea Fleet is scheduled to receive six new frigates, a number of patrol boats and expand the number of its submarines from just one to six over the coming years.

The first of the new submarines, tellingly named Novorossiysk, was completed in St Petersburg last November and is expected to be commissioned in July. Last week, Russian media quoted navy commander Viktor Chirkov as saying it would be heading to Novorossiysk.

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